Boston Consulting Group is just one of the voices we've heard recently warning us of the dangers for companies of becoming wildly optimistic in the face of a few positive economic signs. Its study Green Shoots, False Positives, and What Companies Can Learn from the Great Depression "warns CEOs to guard against the kind of hasty optimism - based on an excessive reliance on one or two promising indicators - that undermined some companies during the Great Depression" according to a press release from the firm.American Public Media's August 3rd Marketplace show featured a segment on navigating the upturn, in which Standard & Poors Chief Economist David Wyss says mistiming the end of the recession can be a fatal mistake. He warns that "The danger is that in some industries if you sort of stay in self-protect mode too long, you're going to miss the upturn completely and end up losing market share. More companies go broke in the upturn than they do during in the recession." However, he then goes on to say that he doesn't think the fabled upturn has arrived yet. Hmmph, he's probably right.
So, what's a company to do? We ask our clients to separate risks too big to assume in uncertain times from sensible business moves that have a way-better-than-even chance of paying off. As a marketing firm, we've watched with dismay as some clients have chopped budgets and then complained about anemic sales. (In case you wonder, we ourselves have navigated through client budget cuts by taking on a larger number of clients, including a number of new ones, balancing out the reality that most companies are spending less than they did in 2008, and in some cases, probably less than in 1908.) We've used more media relations and other PR, more Web surveys, more grassroots marketing, and a lot fewer big splashy campaigns to get the job done for clients.
Where one Downturn Downfall comes in, we believe, is in paralysis. If revenues are shrunken, sure, reduce spending somewhat. But don't cut off all your outreach or you will be forgotten by an uncaring world. And if your company can't seem to decide what product to introduce in this tough market, or when to introduce the thing, GET TO WORK ON DECIDING. If sales are down, sell harder. Sweat still works if you combine it with smarts. The fact that the company down the street announces its sales are down 30 percent, or even the fact that your own company's sales were down 45 percent last quarter, is not adequate reason to assume that you will inevitably match this depressing performance going forward. Expect more, just don't spend all your mythical earnings yet.
The economy is an orchestra. It does take a combined effort to make sweet music, sure, and we're an earplug-worthy cacophony right now. But each musician - from Acme Ant Traps to Toyota - has a singular part to play. Your mother was right. Practice your music longer each day, focus, be open to inspiration, and improve your - and all of our - performance.
