What's the difference between caution and paralysis?

Boston Consulting Group is just one of the voices we've heard recently warning us of the dangers for companies of becoming wildly optimistic in the face of a few positive economic signs. Its study Green Shoots, False Positives, and What Companies Can Learn from the Great Depression "warns CEOs to guard against the kind of hasty optimism - based on an excessive reliance on one or two promising indicators - that undermined some companies during the Great Depression" according to a press release from the firm.

American Public Media's August 3rd Marketplace show featured a segment on navigating the upturn, in which Standard & Poors Chief Economist David Wyss says mistiming the end of the recession can be a fatal mistake. He warns that "The danger is that in some industries if you sort of stay in self-protect mode too long, you're going to miss the upturn completely and end up losing market share. More companies go broke in the upturn than they do during in the recession." However, he then goes on to say that he doesn't think the fabled upturn has arrived yet. Hmmph, he's probably right.

So, what's a company to do? We ask our clients to separate risks too big to assume in uncertain times from sensible business moves that have a way-better-than-even chance of paying off. As a marketing firm, we've watched with dismay as some clients have chopped budgets and then complained about anemic sales. (In case you wonder, we ourselves have navigated through client budget cuts by taking on a larger number of clients, including a number of new ones, balancing out the reality that most companies are spending less than they did in 2008, and in some cases, probably less than in 1908.) We've used more media relations and other PR, more Web surveys, more grassroots marketing, and a lot fewer big splashy campaigns to get the job done for clients.

Where one Downturn Downfall comes in, we believe, is in paralysis. If revenues are shrunken, sure, reduce spending somewhat. But don't cut off all your outreach or you will be forgotten by an uncaring world. And if your company can't seem to decide what product to introduce in this tough market, or when to introduce the thing, GET TO WORK ON DECIDING. If sales are down, sell harder. Sweat still works if you combine it with smarts. The fact that the company down the street announces its sales are down 30 percent, or even the fact that your own company's sales were down 45 percent last quarter, is not adequate reason to assume that you will inevitably match this depressing performance going forward. Expect more, just don't spend all your mythical earnings yet.

The economy is an orchestra. It does take a combined effort to make sweet music, sure, and we're an earplug-worthy cacophony right now. But each musician - from Acme Ant Traps to Toyota - has a singular part to play. Your mother was right. Practice your music longer each day, focus, be open to inspiration, and improve your - and all of our - performance.

Important tactics garnered from unimpressive sources.

What if I told you I'd learned an important business lesson from The Sopranos? (It doesn't involve "justice", don't worry.) And another from The Simpsons?

I contend that it goes to show not only that the Thomas Carlyle quote, "Every man is my superior in that I may learn from him" may still hold water but that it can extend to popular TV shows, old movies, your mother-in-law and so on.

Here are two offbeat tidbits I've picked up along the way.

Tony Soprano's therapist, Dr. Jennifer Melfi, counseled Tony as he was losing "cred" with his guys: "People only see what you show them." For a manager, an entrepreneur, or a person on an important sales call, this is good stuff. Display your best attributes, focus on making a good impression, and leave your insecurities in the car with your MacDonald's wrappers. Remember that not everyone needs to know all the baggage you have stored here and there.

In a fantasy Simpsons episode in which Homer believes he's sold a company to Bill Gates, the alleged Gates takes over by invading Homer's office with a bunch of thugs, wrecking the place and kicking Homer out. "Gates" explains by proclaiming, "Oh, I didn't get rich by writing a lot of checks!" So true. Forget the old "you have to spend money to make money." Actually, you have to MAKE money to make money. (Skip using the thugs, though, if you will.)

So think again the next time you speculate that a sporty new Jaguar will sort of magically-actually make you richer rather than just making you LOOK richer.

(Ohoh, but going back to the Sopranos, couldn't that be a good thing?) With that, I'll retreat and argue with myself a little.

Happy summer, and promises for a weightier entry the next time. And please share any wisdom you've picked up from unimpressive sources!

So you'd like to get a job...

We're hiring. Just one position at present. The process has been interesting.

First off, we haven't had as many applicants as usual, or as expected. We're theorizing that people who have jobs are grateful to have them, and are avoiding the risks of moving on.

Among the applicants we've had, we've had several good ones, some okay and some... perhaps these few stand-out candidates were sent to us from "Hire the Unemployable." We actually received a letter and resume from an applicant who mentioned, right up front, that he figured we were a#@h$les because we are located "in a good zip code" and that he wanted us to know (right up front!) that he would "speak his mind and not put up with any b#$llsh#t." Hey! When can you start??

Others have made it to the interview, only to let us know one or more of the following:

1) they are trying to get an advanced degree in another specialty, to get out of this field because they're tired of it

2) they have a strong interest in moving out of the area soon

3) their previous employers were fools ("The last guy always wanted me to look busy! Are you going to do that?")

A tip for these job hunters: The interviewer is not your pal! Why are you telling her these things?

My sister Jen, who works in the education and job training field, says that, in addition to the many people laid off for purely economic reasons, employers may have used this recession as a way to clean house, thus releasing some loose cannon types into the environment.

Hiring is not for the timid. It never is. But weeding out some of the people you don't want to face every morning is getting easier all the time. I guess it's my turn to be grateful... for that at least.

Still human after all these years.

I recently attended a school reunion and met up with a woman whom I hardly know as an individual, but know well by her impressive professional achievements. She's famous, in fact. Really famous.

In fact, as I was driving to this reunion, I'd thought of her, of how much she's accomplished, how impressed I am. Oh, and I had a little twinge that I haven't soared to anywhere near those heights. But so be it.

When I arrived, I pinned on my obligatory year-of-graduation badge and began to talk with people. At one point, the very accomplished woman came over to say hi to me. We chatted for a moment, then she squinted at my badge. "Oh," she said, clearly dismayed. "I'm the OLDEST one here!"

Wow. Here she was, smart, successful, well-known... and worried she graduated a couple of years before me and others at the party. It goes to show that no matter how much we've done, we're still just whoever we are, insecurities and all. Is that what it means to be human?

Ten books... one life...

There are perhaps ten books I would like to write. And that's just today. On how many of them am I actively working? Well, that's another matter.

I've gone through major life changes in the last several years, including the passing of a spouse, the growing up and (successful) moving on of my two sons, the closing of one company (a stock photo firm) and the happy growth of van Schouwen Associates into broader areas of public relations and interactive marketing work.

I'm left with lots of work to do... and ten books to write. I read a question recently: what is so important that it keeps you from living the life you want? (Or, in the echo in my head, "writing the books you want to write?")

In fact, there can be situations so important that you need to sacrifice your own desires and life plans. The trick is to decide what situations qualify. I suspect that we often give priority to needs and demands we've outgrown. Such as my need not to do the research that will allow me to progress on any one of my ten books. On a recent vacation, wandering around Key West, Florida (I recommend that as a way to change your perspective, for sure!) I encountered the book Quit Your Job and Move to Key West. I resisted buying it and hope no vSA employee will get any ideas. It was the underlying premise of the book that really caught my attention: who says you can't make radical life moves? Alter something fundamental?

Even if you want to keep your job (sure, I do too) it's great to think about your life plan, and the quality of your days. Are you enjoying yourself? Spending your time on things that make you happy or are useful - or both? Having the courage to change and grow?

Challenge your assumptions, even the ones that seem too solid to re-examine. News flash for the settled, middle-aged or complacent among us: Taking risks can be a great adventure. People have asked me where I get the nerve to be an entrepreneur or take other risks I've elected to assume. Well, I start by asking what the worst case scenario will be if things go wrong, and whether I can face it. (For example, "I could end up living in a cardboard box..." then I decide well, okay, that's really not very likely, and I guess I can deal with less drastic downsides that are more possible).

Not everyone's dream is the same, obviously. While one person wants to leave the proverbial rat race, another wants to build a tech empire. Or write ten books, or maybe just finish developing that one book. Or get divorced. Or find someone to love. Develop an organic garden. Live in a happy place. Adopt a teenager.

What's yours?

How refreshing: a new take.

At work... are you agonizing about reduced sales, lowered projections and the future in general? Fair enough; you're not alone. At vSA, we regard this era as the right time to make sure we (our clients and ourselves) are ready for whatever comes next for this economy.

Marketing is much more than getting products and services in front of potential buyers, and now is an opportune time to step back, w-a-y back, in the process.

Perhaps you sell products for the building trades and business is terrible. Or you are a financial consultant, or an engineering firm.

Ask yourself some hard questions:

-Is business bad just because of the recession, or are there underlying forces at hand that go beyond economic cycles? Are our products still the best ones for the market? Are we delivering them well? Pricing them right? What’s our customer service like? What does the competitive arena look like now? Are people going to start buying this specific service again soon? Do we need to diversify? If so, how?

If these questions seem extreme, just imagine that you’re in the newspaper business right now. You’d be wishing you started responding to market change years ago! Hopefully, that's not you. Hopefully, you have the time and resources to do this work right now, while it’s quieter and the phones are not always oh-so-tiresomely ringing off the hook.

Some tools to employ:

Do competitive research. Is someone else getting ahead of you? Diversifying intelligently? Changing their business focus? What can you learn?

Survey your customers. They can’t tell you everything, of course. As Henry Ford once said, "If I had asked my customers what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse." (But at least he’d have known they wanted something faster.)

Do an environmental scan. What people and what processes can help you get where you’re going? Do you have the right staff, consultants, attitude? What needs to change?

Turn concern into proactive planning. Use this time for fresh thinking and an energized approach to the future.

Can we, as strategic planners, help? We welcome your questions and comments right here on the blog or through our office.

Why are you just sitting there?

I ran into one of my bankers the other day, in the hallway, and we started to chat.

"It's hard to get in front of people these days," he said to me, "They don't even want to talk."

I knew what he meant. Unsure about what action to take next, some business people sink into inertia. When someone should at the very least be out front painting the sign, she is instead... moping?

Let's travel back in time... to the Great Depression. While we're at it, let's have a bowl of cereal - from Kelloggs. Why Kelloggs? During the Depression, while Post was taking the "logical" course of pulling in its reins, Kelloggs doubled its ad budget, got on the radio and promoted the heck out of Rice Krispies. In fact, Snap, Crackle and Pop got their start in the 30s. By the time the economy recovered, Kelloggs was the predominant player. While market share was dwindling, Kelloggs grabbed more and more of it.

Can that work for your firm? Will top management allow it? What are your greatest concerns and hopes? We'd love to hear from you.